Due to a string of horrible beats lately I’ve decided to take some time off and run some math on various poker hands/outcomes instead of playing. I’ll be using Maple 8 and I’m sure most of the methods will be plagarized from various poker sources and put into one document, which I will call:
Jake’s Review of Poker Math
Last night I was doing some thinking and ran some simulations with Wilson’s holdem software and came up with some numbers that basically matched what I thought. This study has little scientific basis - randomized 1,000,000 hands to showdown with no betting. Later on I include some theory which no doubt creates a poorly devised experiment-theory hybrid.
So here is the first in the series:
All In Preflop : 2-2 vs AK Showdown:
| AK Details |
A K Wins |
2 2 Wins |
Split |
| Unsuited 0 Suit Matchup |
46.87% |
52.84% |
0.29% |
| Unsuited 1 Suit Matchup |
47.27% |
52.43% |
0.30% |
| Unsuited 2 Suit Matchup |
47.49% |
52.17% |
0.33% |
| Suited 0 Suit Matchup |
49.90% |
49.79% |
0.32% |
| Suited 1 Suit Matchup |
49.51% |
50.16% |
0.33% |
Data Set Size = 1,000,000 hands
But really - to get a total average standoff percentage we need to realize that AK suited is much less likely than AK unsuited, or matching at least 1 suit between the two is more likely than not. So given that all cards have an equal chance of being dealt, we can write a few lists to discover the probabilities.
And Finally:
Averaging To Get a Final Winner:
| AK Details |
Prob. Occur |
Y 2-2 |
Y A-K |
Y Split |
| U 0M |
0.1 |
5.28% |
4.69% |
0.03% |
| U 1M |
0.4 |
20.97% |
18.91% |
0.12% |
| U 2M |
0.1 |
5.22% |
4.75% |
0.03% |
| S 0M |
0.2 |
9.96% |
9.98% |
0.06% |
| S 1M |
0.2 |
10.03% |
9.90% |
0.07% |
| Totals |
1.0 |
51.46% |
48.22% |
0.31% |
Y - product of the probability of occurrence and the win probability
So AK is a dog by 2.8% over 1,000,000 hands. Nothing really new there but interesting to see it evolve.
Just a few notes about split pots - these can only occur when a 5 cards appear on the board that beat both hands. So Straight, Some Full Houses, Straight Flush, Flush (Four of a kind is possible to split only when the overcard connectors do not contain an Ace). Of these, only the flushes depend on suit, and as the data indicates - as matching suits increase, so do the split pots (Albeit slightly, but due to more ‘other’ suited cards existing in the deck to give the non-matching flush).
Also consider that AK are the worst connecting overcards to have (by a slight amount) when going up against a low pocket, due mainly to straight possibilities. I’ll prove this to you in future posts, but if you think that you’re against low pockets - you’re better off playing J-10 and the like. However, if we showdown AK and J10 it would be quite apparent the good money was on big slick.
On to the next problem!
Found this on ct05.net when doing my pre-bed news surf. Call me a leftie freak for reading it but I find they have a lot of decent content.
A state district judge in Texas ruled Thursday that the treasurer of Texans for a Republican Majority, a political action committee formed by House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-Texas), violated election law by failing to report hundreds of thousands of dollars in campaign contributions. | DeLay’s violations are so egregious that he can’t even get away with it in Texas.
Now although Delay was not involved directly, this is the second thing concerning Tom Delay that I read today that made me smile. You go after those ‘extremist’ judges, Tom.
From Yahoo:
DeLay’s name surfaced on Wednesday night on the show’s season finale, which centered on the fictional slayings of two judges by suspected right-wing extremists.
In the episode, police are frustrated by a lack of clues, leading one officer to quip, “Maybe we should put out an APB (all-points-bulletin) for somebody in a Tom DeLay T-shirt.”
Possibly the funniest thing I’ve heard all week. Tom DeLay IS a right wing extremist, and the fact that he’s protesting the show’s reference to his views really made my day.
It’s hard to believe it’s still raining considering that it’s been doing so for 2 weeks. Not only is it depressing but it really cramps my style of trying to get in decent shape this summer. Hard to go for a bike ride when the trails are washed out etc. The weather man is still forecasting crap for the next few days.
And in the older news category, it appears that politicians knew that Maher Arar was being tortured after his capture, but chose to downplay it. I think it’s really brutal what happened to this guy:
Arar was deported to Syria by U.S. authorities after they arrested him in the fall of 2002 on a stop-over in New York as he flew home to Canada from Tunisia.
Although our government went to bat later on for Arar, they certainly dropped the ball with his situation overall. I’m not sure why this story went away so fast - a Canadian citizen with Canadian passport ‘deported’ to Syria by the US? I hope the situation is that I don’t know all the facts, not that this happened and got washed over within a month.
And now it seems the hippies are protesting the upgrades at various CANDU reactors across the country. Instead of nuclear energy, they suggest greener options like wind farms or tidal waves or volcanoes. It’s very easy to suggest outlandish power generation options like this when you do not have to provide monetary justification. As a addendum to their suggestions I’d also like to suggest that the government also build a city on the moon and build a pipeline to jupiter to harvest it’s Hydrogen for use in automobiles.
Finally, I’d like to openly say that the ACLU is one of the most sensible nonprofit organizations to support in the USA. Their opposition of the ‘Patriot Act 2′ is bang-on in my opinion. Despite the media OVER-reporting and hype of war and
judge shootings, people should not forget to keep a watch on the homefront. Homeland security DNE increased personal freedoms. Remember that, and don’t get distracted.
